The Primer: Global Warming and Climate Change. Dr. Mir F. Ali

Change. Dr. Mir F. Ali

In spite of unremitting controversy, the interest in global warming is increasing by the minute. It doesn’t take a huge effort these days for the global population to acquire the necessary knowledge on the subject so that they can make informed decisions in their daily lives.

People are beginning to appreciate the facts presented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC):
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level;

• Observational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases; and
• There is medium confidence that other effects of regional climate change on natural and human environments are emerging, although many are difficult to discern due to adaptation and non-climatic drivers.

While media attention and access to the information on the subject have been a great help to promote the concept, at the same time it has created some confusion due to the use of different terminologies, and the duplication of the information. This paper is dedicated to providing some basic background information on the subject.

Perhaps the best way to proceed with this paper is to provide the background information for the controversy about global warming. Here are some facts which were published in the London Times by Naomi Oreskes and Jonathan Renouf on September 7, 2008:

1. Hullabaloo of Global Warming:
The unnecessary and politically motivated debate about global warming has been going on for years, attempting to dispute almost every aspect of the overwhelming scientific consensus on the subject. Arguments aimed at presenting doubt have delayed significant political action which could have dealt with greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions much more effectively and earlier. Recent research reveals how the roots of this argument stretch back to two hugely influential reports written almost 30 years ago. These reports involve an organization of American scientists reporting to the US Department of Defence. At the highest levels of the American government, officials pondered whether global warming was a significant new threat to civilization. They turned for advice to the elite special forces of the scientific world – an organization known as JASON.

Jason was established (by whom?)in 1960 at the height of the cold war when a group of physicists who had helped to develop the atomic bomb proposed a new organization that would – to quote one of its founders – “inject new ideas into national defence”. So the Jasons (as they style themselves) were born; a self-selected group of brilliant minds free to think the unthinkable in the knowledge that their work was classified. Membership was by invitation only and they are indeed the cream of the scientific community. Of the roughly 100 Jasons over the years, 11 have won Nobel prizes and 43 have been elected to the US National Academy of Sciences.

In 1977, Jasons got to work on global warming. There was one potential problem. Only a few of them knew anything about climatology. To get a better understanding they relocated for a few days to Boulder, Colorado, the base for NCAR – the National Center for Atmospheric Research – where they heard the latest information on climate change. Then, being physicists, they went back to first principles and decided to build a model of the climate system. Officially it was called Features of Energy-Budget Climate Models: An Example of Weather-Driven Climate Stability, but it was dubbed the Jason Model of the World.

In 1979 they produced their report: Coded JSR-78-07 and entitled The Long Term Impact of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide on Climate. Now, with the benefit of hind-sight, it is remarkable how prescient it was. Right on the first page, the Jasons predicted that carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere would double from their preindustrial levels by about the year 2035. Today it’s expected this will happen by about 2050. They suggested that this doubling of carbon dioxide would lead to an average warming across the planet of 2-3C. Again, that’s right in the middle of today’s predictions. They warned that polar regions would warm by much more than the average, perhaps by as much as 10C or 12C. That prediction is already coming true – last year the Arctic sea ice melted to a new record low. This year may well set another record.

Nor were the Jasons frightened of drawing the obvious conclusions for civilization: The cause for concern was clear when one noted “the fragility of the world’s crop-producing capacity, particularly in those marginal areas where small alterations in temperature and precipitation can bring about major changes in total productivity”.

Scientific research has since added detail to the predictions+, but has not changed the basic forecast. The Jason report was never officially released, but was read at the highest levels of the US government.

Here is a description of the role the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) plays in the world of global warming:

2. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC):
The IPCC is a scientific intergovernmental body set up by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Its constituency is made of:

• The Governments:

The IPCC is open to all member countries of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programs (UNEP), participate in plenary Sessions of the IPCC where main decisions about the IPCC work programme are taken and reports are accepted, adopted and approved. They also participated in the review of IPCC Reports.

• The Scientists:

Hundreds of scientists all over the world contribute to the work of the IPCC as authors, contributors and reviewers; and

• The People:

As United Nations body, the IPCC work aims at the promotion of the United Nations human development goals.

The IPCC is a scientific body: the information it provides is based on scientific evidence and reflects existing viewpoints within the scientific community. The comprehensiveness of the scientific content is achieved through contributions from experts in all regions of the world and all relevant disciplines including, where appropriately documented, industry literature and traditional practices, and a two stage review process by experts and governments.

Because of its intergovernmental nature, the IPCC is able to provide scientific technical and socio-economic information in a policy-relevant, but policy neutral way to decision makers. When governments accept the IPCC reports and approve their Summary for Policymakers, they acknowledge the legitimacy of their scientific content.

The IPCC provides its reports at regular intervals and they immediately become standard works of reference, widely used by policymakers, experts and students. The findings of the first IPCC Assessment Report of 1990 played a decisive role in leading to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which was opened for signature in the Rio de Janeiro Summit in 1992 and entered into force in 1994. It provides the overall policy framework for addressing the climate change issue. The IPCC Second Assessment Report of 1995 provided key input for the negotiations of the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 and the Third Assessment Report of 2001 as well as Special and Methodology Reports provided further information relevant for the development of the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol. The IPCC continues to be a major source of information for the negotiations under the UNFCCC.

On Feb. 2, 2007, the United Nations scientific panel studying climate change declared that the evidence of a warming trend is “unequivocal,” the likelihood was 90 percent to 99 percent that emissions of heat-trapping GHGs like CO2, spewed from tailpipes and smokestacks, were the dominant cause of the observed warming of the last 50 years. In the panel’s parlance, this level of certainty is labelled “very likely.”

It was reported that global average air temperatures rose 0.74 +/- 0.18 degrees Celsius during the past century. Several climate scenarios illustrate how temperatures might increase during the 21st century (Graphic: Figure 1). Which of these scenarios becomes reality depends on how much CO2 and other GHGs will be emitted. Pre-industrial levels were around 280 CO2 parts per million (ppmv) molecules of dry air; they have since risen to the current level of some 380 ppmv. If global warming is to be limited to 2 degrees Celsius, CO2 concentration has to be stabilized at 400-450 ppmv or less.

It was also reported that the global climate is likely to rise between 3.5 and 8 degrees Fahrenheit if the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere reaches twice the level of 1750. It predicts that Arctic summer sea ice will disappear by 2080 and that weather patterns will change globally. Such changes could include heat waves, droughts, an increase in heavy rain and more intense storms. In Europe, rising temperatures could turn much of Spain, Italy and Greece into deserts.

Northern Europe, including Britain, would face more floods, heat waves and stronger storms. Much of Australia would become uninhabitable. By 2100, sea levels are likely to rise between 7 to 23 inches, and the changes now underway will continue for centuries to come.
Synthesizing reams of data from its three previous reports, the IPCC for the first time specifically points out important risks if governments fail to respond: melting ice sheets that could lead to a rapid rise in sea levels and the extinction of large numbers of species brought about by even moderate amounts of warming, on the order of 1 to 3 degrees.

“The world is already at or above the worst case scenarios in terms of emissions,” said Gernot Klepper, of the Kiel Institute for World Economy in Kiel, Germany. “In terms of emissions, we are moving past the most pessimistic estimates of the IPCC, and by some estimates we are above that red line.”

The panel presents several scenarios for the trajectory of emissions and climate change. In 2006, 8.4 gigatons of carbon were put into the atmosphere from fossil fuels, according to a study in the proceedings of the National Academy of Science, which was co-written by Dr. Klepper. That is almost identical to the panel’s worst case prediction for that year.

Most climatologists concur that the Arctic is melting like a candle, and a good deal faster than anyone expected. In 2007 parts of the Arctic Ocean reached 8F above normal, another record, while NASA satellite data reported at summer’s end that there was just half the volume of Arctic ice that there had been 48 months before. “It’s beyond our worst-case scenarios,” says Michael Byers, professor of global politics at the University of British Columbia, “and quite terrifying in terms of its potential scope.” Or, as Mark Serreze, senior scientist at a Colorado “snow-and-ice data centre” recently told the Associated Press: “The Arctic is screaming.”

How scientists on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change believe Earth will be affected:
· The world has already warmed by an average 0.7C in the past century. Temperatures in polar-regions have increased the fastest, with 5C rises in some areas;
· Another 1.3C of warming is inevitable because of GHGs already released into the atmosphere;
· Alpine ski resorts will be left without snow and many rivers will dry up. In Africa up to 250m more people will suffer water shortages by 2020;
· Worldwide agriculture could be devastated, especially in parts of Africa and Asia where some crop yields could halve by 2020;
· Tidal flooding will increase. Global sea levels are rising by 3.1mm a year and accelerating. Most is due to warm water expansion;
· Emissions of CO2 - the main GHG - grew by 80% between 1970 and 2004. Its concentration in the atmosphere is the highest for 650,000 years; and
· The amount of CO2 emitted by humans will rise by up to 90% by 2030 unless action is taken.

3. Global Warming and Climate Change:
It appears to be a common practice to use the terms “climate change” and “global warming” interchangeably, as if they were the same thing. But there are differences between the meanings of the two terms. Here is some clarification:
· Global Warming: An overall warming of the planet, based on average temperature over the entire surface:
o Planet Earth’s current warming trend is based largely on natural warming and cooling cycles that have been happening for eons; as well as human-caused additions to greenhouse gases, which are boosting the atmosphere’s ability to trap heat in the biosphere. Minor factors like an overall increase in the sun’s solar intensity play a smaller role; and
o While greenhouse gases are an essential component of a liveable planet—they’re what keep Earth from being a lifeless ball of ice—humans are causing greenhouse gas levels to increase so quickly that it’s causing the average global temperature to rise much faster than it would naturally.
· Climate Change: It is about much more than how warm or cool our temperatures are. Whereas “global warming” refers to increasing global temperatures, “climate change” refers to regional conditions. Climate is defined by a number of factors, including:
o Average regional temperature as well as day/night temperature patterns and seasonal temperature patterns;
o Humidity;
o Precipitation (average amounts and seasonal patterns);
o Average amount of sunshine and level of cloudiness;
o Air pressure and winds; and
o Storm events (type, average number per year, and seasonal patterns).

4. The Causes of Climate Change: Greenhouse Gases (GHGs):
It took more than 20 years to broadly accept that mankind is causing global warming with the emission of GHGs. The drastic increase in the emission of CO2 within the last 30 years caused by burning fossil fuels has been identified as the major reason for the change of temperature in the atmosphere.

GHGs are substances that exist in the earth’s atmosphere that allow sunlight to reach the planet’s surface, but can capture heat reflected back towards space, thereby contributing to a warming of the earth’s atmosphere. Normal levels of these gases help to insulate the earth and create a habitable planet.

Elevated levels of these gases are linked to historical rises in global temperature, and scientific research has concluded that human-caused emissions of GHGs most likely are contributing to the more rapid temperature increases experienced in recent decades. This phenomenon, which is expected to continue and to accelerate in the coming century, is known broadly as climate change, or global warming.

When sunlight reaches Earth’s surface some is absorbed and warms the earth and most of the rest is radiated back to the atmosphere at a longer wavelength than the sun light. Some of these longer wavelengths are absorbed by GHGs in the atmosphere before they are lost to space. The absorption of this long-wave radiant energy warms the atmosphere. These GHGs act like a mirror and reflect back to the Earth some of the heat energy which would otherwise be lost to space.

The reflecting back of heat energy by the atmosphere is called the “greenhouse effect”. Venus and Mars also have atmospheric gases that cause greenhouse effects. GHGs naturally blanket the Earth and keep it about 33 degrees Celsius warmer than it would be without these gases in the atmosphere.

Most GHGs exist naturally, but human activities, primarily the generation of energy through combustion of carbon-based fossil fuels, are pushing atmospheric levels of these substances higher than usual.

Humans cause significant emissions of GHGs that include: CO2, methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6). Examples of the atmospheric lifetime and GWP (Global warming potential) for several GHGs include:

1. Carbon Dioxide (CO2) has a variable atmospheric lifetime, and cannot be specified precisely Recent work indicates that recovery from a large input of atmospheric CO2 from burning fossil fuels will result in an effective lifetime of tens of thousands of years. CO2 is defined to have a GWP of 1 over all time periods.
2. Methane (CH4) has an atmospheric lifetime of 12 ± 3 years and a GWP of 62 over 20 years, 23 over 100 years and 7 over 500 years. The decrease in GWP at longer times is because methane is degraded to water and CO2 by chemical reactions in the atmosphere.
3. Nitrous oxide (N20) has an atmospheric lifetime of 120 years and a GWP of 296 over 100 years.
4. Hydrofluorocarbons HCFCs has an atmospheric lifetime of 12.1 years and a GWP of 1700 over 100 years.
5. Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) has an atmospheric lifetime of 50,000 years and a GWP of 5700 over 100 years.
6. Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) has an atmospheric lifetime of 3,200 years and a GWP of 22000 over 100 years.

CO2 is the largest component of human GHG emissions in terms of volume, and such gases are usually measured in terms of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e), a metric used to compare the contribution to global warming of various GHGs. For example, the global warming potential of methane is rated as 23 over 100 years, meaning that an emission of one metric tonne of methane is equal to emissions of 23 tonnes of CO2 in terms of contribution to climate change.

Atmospheric levels of GHGs have nearly doubled since large-scale industrialization began around 150 years ago, from 280 parts per million CO2e to 430 ppm. The World Meteorological Organization recently reported that global atmospheric concentrations of CO2 reached their highest levels ever recorded in 2005. Current atmospheric levels of CO2, nitrous oxide, and methane are higher than those in pre-industrial times by 35.4%, 18.2% and 154.7%, respectively.

The links between GHG levels, human activities such as the combustion of fossil fuels, and global temperature variability are the core elements of the climate change issue.

It is very likely that the observed increase in CH4 (Methane) concentration is predominantly due to agriculture and fossil fuel use. CH4 growth rates have declined since the early 1990s, consistent with total emissions (sum of anthropogenic and natural sources) being nearly constant during this period. The increase in N2O (nitrous oxide) concentration is primarily due to agriculture.

There is very high confidence that the net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming. Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations. It is likely that there has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over each continent (except Antarctica). During the past 50 years, the sum of solar and volcanic “forcings” would likely have produced cooling. Observed patterns of warming and their changes are simulated only by models that include anthropogenic “forcings”. Difficulties remain in simulating and attributing observed temperature changes at smaller than continental scales.

Advances show that discernible human influences extend beyond average temperature to other aspects of climate. Human influences have:

· Very likely contributed to sea level rise during the latter half of the 20th century;
· Likely contributed to changes in wind patterns, affecting extra-tropical storm tracks and temperature patterns;
· Likely increased temperatures of extreme hot nights, cold nights and cold days;
· More likely than not increased risk of heat waves, area affected by drought since the 1970s and frequency of heavy precipitation events.

The following graph demonstrates the sources of GHGs:

5. The Potential Impacts:
The full effects of climate change are uncertain, as it is difficult to predict the level of temperature increase that will actually occur and the impacts that these changes will have on complex natural systems. At the lower level of projected temperature increases, impacts may be minimal, while at the higher end, catastrophic changes could occur that affect all human life. The IPCC notes that although a slight increase in temperature may be beneficial to some regions, the net impacts of climate change are likely to be negative for most areas.

Through melting of Arctic sea ice and continued retreat of glaciers around the world, global mean sea levels are projected to rise by between 9 and 88 centimetres by 2100. Many coastal areas and low-lying island states have significant potential to be inundated with water, making areas uninhabitable or vulnerable to extreme weather. Coastal erosion, seawater intrusion into groundwater, and ecosystem changes are also predicted. Large-scale desertification could make much of the world’s agricultural land unproductive and uninhabitable. As many as 200 million people may be displaced by rising sea levels, flooding, and drought.

Melting of the Arctic may also free up a polar transportation route that is currently covered in thick sea ice, making the Northwest Passage a viable shipping route for up to 120 days compared to 20-30 days currently, predicts the ACIA. Melting of permafrost and a northward expansion of woodlands will have an effect on the ecosystem in Canada’s North, threatening species such as polar bears and caribou that depend on current climate conditions.

Evidence also points to an increase in pests and human diseases with a rise in temperature, though the extent of this has not yet been agreed upon by scientists. The pine beetle infestation in Western Canada is one example of the possible effects of climate change, as warmer than usual winters have allowed the non-native species to survive, damaging an estimated 10 million hectares of forest worth hundreds of millions of dollars and threatening the livelihood of at least 25,000 families.

Agricultural productivity in temperate zones may actually improve with small increases in temperature, while larger increases could threaten crops. Biodiversity has already been impacted in many areas as species migrate north to maintain their ideal climate, and birds and flowers respond to spring-type weather earlier in the year. Marine fisheries may experience positive and negative changes, with possible redistribution of species - more research on this subject is expected with the next IPCC Assessment.

An increase in extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, droughts, and fire has also been projected. Though a concrete link has yet to be established, scientists have shown that an increase in sea surface temperatures coincides with an increase in the number of intense hurricanes in the Atlantic. More volatile weather patterns are expected in most areas. Many insurance companies have responded by making climate change a major strategy consideration, offering products that encourage emissions reductions and mitigations strategies to limit losses. Leading companies such as Swiss Re consider climate change to be one of the most pressing business issues of this century.

In terms of predicting the economic impacts of these global changes, there is again a great deal of uncertainty. Some models predict losses in the GDP of developing nations of hundreds of billions of dollars per year by as early as 2010. A comprehensive economic review by former World Bank Chief Economist Sir Nicholas Stern estimates that climate change could cost the world economy 5 percent of its GDP, or around $3 trillion per year, equivalent to economic collapses such as the Great Depression; if wider impacts are taken into account, the projection leaps to 20 percent of world GDP, enough to cripple the global economy.

In general, the long-term economic impacts are very difficult to quantify, but certainly worst-case scenarios projected in climate models would have catastrophic effects on the livelihoods of billions of people worldwide, with corresponding volatility in the global economy. From a risk management perspective, many insurance companies are taking the position that the large-scale effects of climate change are simply too enormous to ignore.

6. Possible Solutions:
The question, what can be done about climate change? This question has been widely considered over the last two decades by governments around the world and by such global organizations as the United Nations. In broad terms there are two avenues open to us:
1. Adaptation:
Adaptation involves minimizing the negative effects of likely or occurring climate change through precautionary measures; and
2. Mitigation:
Mitigation involves a large-scale effort to reduce human-caused greenhouse gas emissions.

Scientific modeling has shown that stabilizing levels of GHGs in the atmosphere could reduce or prevent damaging levels of climate change. Atmospheric levels of GHGs are currently around 430 parts per million, compared to a pre-industrial level of 280 ppm. Stabilizing this concentration between 430 ppm and 550 ppm will help to reduce the most serious risks of climate change.

In the short-term, slight climate changes are expected to occur as global economies are projected to continue consuming fossil fuels for the majority of their energy supply.

As a result, adaptive measures may need to be taken in many regions. These could include construction of sea barriers, altered agricultural methods, stockpiling of food, and improved protection against pests and diseases. Simply constructing buildings to withstand extreme weather events and maintain a constant temperature efficiently are some small adaptive measures that could be undertaken in Canada. Conservation efforts that will help northern peoples and animal species to cope with melting permafrost are also important aspects of climate change adaptation.

Adaptation is generally overlooked in favour of mitigation efforts however, as reducing greenhouse gas emissions is the only way to slow climate change. Ways of reducing greenhouse gas emissions are well-known: improving energy efficiency, reducing fossil fuel consumption, diversifying energy supply by expanding the use of renewables, and decreasing deforestation. Energy use through the consumption of fossil fuels to generate electricity, for heating, and for transportation, is the source of most anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, so it is in this area that most new technologies have emerged.

Renewable energy such as hydroelectricity, wind, solar, biomass, geothermal and tidal power provide clear emissions reductions by displacing fossil-fuel consumption, but currently make up only a small portion of the world’s energy supply. Their usage is expected to increase nearly 60 percent by 2030, according to the International Energy Agency, although their total share of world energy supply is expected to remain relatively constant at 14 percent.

In many cases, these emissions-free energy sources are a viable alternative. Wind turbines are becoming larger, solar panels are more efficient, and the costs for renewable energy are showing signs of convergence with traditional energy sources, though hurdles still remain.

Bioenergy - using plants, trees, and shrubs as fuel - is also emerging as a major energy sector. Biomass can be converted into fuels such as ethanol and biodiesel, or combusted directly using advanced technologies that reduce air emissions. Bioenergy is considered ‘carbon neutral’ because growing the crops needed to produce fuel offsets the greenhouse gas emissions from combustion. While economic and technical challenges to the wide-scale use of biofuels remain, ethanol markets will continue to grow, and the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) projects that bioenergy could provide up to 25 percent of the world’s energy by 2025.

Hydrogen is also looked upon as a potentially major source of ‘clean’ energy in the future. This basic element is now being used in fuel cells to power buses and cars, and can also be deployed in large-scale power plants. When combusted, it’s only emissions are water vapour. Technical challenges must still be overcome surrounding the production, distribution, and cost of hydrogen technologies, but many believe the ‘Hydrogen Economy’ is well on its way.

Although the alternative energy sources listed above are sure to make up a growing component of the worldwide energy mix, most international organizations are projecting that fossil fuels will continue to dominate global energy generation until at least 2050. Faced with that reality, a push to demonstrate the use of ‘clean fossil fuels’ is underway. New technologies are emerging that allow for the gasification of coal to reduce its emissions, and one area of particular importance is that of carbon dioxide capture and storage.

Technologies now exist to capture carbon dioxide from point sources, and demonstration projects have established the viability of storing the gas for the long term in geological formations, abandoned oil wells, or deep sea reservoirs. In the case of the Weyburn project in Saskatchewan, injection of CO2 into an oil well for storage also results in the recovery of extra oil reserves. If fossil fuels must be combusted in the near-term future, then carbon capture and storage is likely necessary on a large scale to control global greenhouse gas emissions.

Energy efficiency is perhaps that largest area of opportunity for reducing the expected rise in global greenhouse gas emissions. The International Energy Agency has shown that that improved energy efficiency using today’s technologies can reduce expected growth in electricity demand by half, and cut the need for added generation capacity by one-third, even as global energy demand increases by fifty percent. Sustainable building techniques, efficient lighting technologies, and other existing products should not be overlooked for their energy and cost-saving potential.

Deforestation and the clearing of land for crops and pastures is a significant source of greenhouse gas emissions, and the loss of tropical forests is a vital issue that must be tackled along with energy use. The carbon-storage value of many forests exceeds the value of the marginal lands they provide when cleared, and reducing deforestation can be a significant measure that developing countries can be encouraged to take.
Applying these technology-based solutions on a large enough scale to make the needed emissions reductions is a challenge, however. One way to make this happen is through the use of market-based incentives. This is where carbon trading becomes important.

7. Global Approach to Climate Change:
In 1990, the United Nations General Assembly decided to start work on a climate change convention.
Under the leadership of Brian Mulroney, the former Prime Minister, Canada was instrumental in organizing the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development which is also known as the Earth Summit. The conference was held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 which was attended by 172 governments with 108 sending their heads of states to represent their governments, 2,400 representatives of non-government organizations (NGO) with 17,000 people at the parallel NGO “Global Forum” who had consultative status.

History was made here by recognizing the fact for the first time at an international level that climate change is occurring and that it is largely due to human activities.

Additionally at the core of international efforts to address climate change, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was launched under the Bali Road Map. The UNFCCC treaty entered into force on 21 March, 1994.

The UNFCCC is an international environmental treaty and it is aimed at stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. The treaty as originally framed set no mandatory limits on greenhouse gas emissions for individual nations and contained no enforcement provisions, it is therefore considered legally non-binding. Rather, the treaty included provisions for updates (called “protocols”) that would set mandatory emission limits.

The principal update is the Kyoto Protocol, which has become much better known than the UNFCCC itself.

The following highlights the findings of the Thematic Debate of the General Assembly at the United Nations Headquarter, New York on July 31 – August 1, 2007 on the subject of “Climate Challenge as a Global Challenge”:

Global Approach to Climate Change:

• The “blanket” of greenhouse gases that occurs naturally in the atmosphere serves the vital function of regulating the planet’s climate. Since the start of the industrial revolution some 250 years ago, emissions of greenhouse gases have been making this blanket thicker at an unprecedented speed. This has caused the most dramatic change in the atmosphere’s composition since at least 650,000 years ago. Unless significant efforts are made to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, the global climate will continue to warm rapidly over the coming decades and beyond;
• The latest IPCC assessment, released during 2007, shows that the warming of the climate system is unequivocal and accelerating. This is based on evidence of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level;
• Many countries are starting to take concrete action to adapt to future climate changes. This needs to be expanded and integrated into national and sectoral plans to ensure that sustainable development and adaptation progress together. The UNFCCC fosters adaptation by committing all Parties to formulate, implement, publish and update adaptation measures, as well as to cooperate on adaptation. A variety of support mechanisms for adaptation implementation in developing countries are supported; including, the provision of funding, insurance and technology transfer, as well as scientific and technical assistance;
• National Adaptation Programmes of Action are an option for the Least Developed Countries and provide a rigorous assessment of urgent adaptation needs. They aim to expand the coping range of communities. In addition, the ‘Nairobi’ work programme on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change assists all countries in understanding and assessing impacts, vulnerability and adaptation. It enables informed decision-making on practical adaptation actions and measures and provides a structured framework for cooperation. The UN System, its specialised agencies and other international organisations also mainstream adaptation into their relevant work programmes;
• Adaptation must be implemented through a holistic approach incorporating both local (bottom-up) and national (top-down) levels. The role of the UNFCCC is to catalyze adaptation efforts through this integrated and cross-cutting set of actions, which take into consideration current climate variability and future climate change. These actions should be linked to national and sectoral policies and objectives, as well as environmental objectives of other Multilateral Environmental Agreements. Bilateral, multilateral and regional collaboration must be included both in terms of assessment and implementation of adaptation measures;
• It is critical that adaptation be brought forward on policy agendas. Parties to the UNFCCC have already highlighted the major challenges and the most important elements that might be part of an enhanced multilateral response to climate change when the first commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012. Sustained sufficient funding for the implementation of large-scale adaptation initiatives is of key importance. Without sufficient and targeted funding, adaptation runs the risk of not being effectively addressed. Short-term emergency relief, or “reactive” funding, is costly and unsupportive of sustainable development approaches over the long term;
• According to the IPCC, there is significant potential for mitigation, including increasing the use of clean technologies and improving end-use efficiency. There are significant economic potential for all sectors involved in mitigating global greenhouse gas emissions over the coming decades. This potential is sufficient to offset the projected growth of global emissions or even to reduce emissions below current levels. The IPCC suggest that the macro-economic effects of mitigation towards stabilization (between 445 and 710 ppm of CO2e) in 2030 vary from a small increase in global GDP to a 3 per cent decrease, depending of the stringency of the stabilization target. The Stern Review suggests that the annual cost of emissions reductions leading to stabilization at 550 ppm CO2e is likely to be around 1 percent of GDP by 2050;
• Some of the available mitigation options are in fact “no regrets” opportunities that can yield multiple societal and environmental benefits. At the same time, concerns of developing country oil exporting nations, which center on the negative impacts that mitigation measures in developed;
• The wide deployment of climate-friendly technologies is key to meeting the mitigation challenge. Existing clean technologies need to be rapidly picked up by the private sector and deployed widely, including through technological cooperation between industrialised and developing countries. Addressing climate change will, however, require continuous improvement through innovation and the development of new technologies;
• Governments can play a major role motivating the private sector to invest in innovative technologies by providing incentives that are clear, predictable, long term and robust. Governments are successfully using a wide range of policies and measures that address climate change, including regulations and standards, taxes and charges, tradable permits, voluntary agreements, subsidies, financial incentives, research and development programs, and information instruments;
• Effective mitigation requires a diversified portfolio of policies to address all major sectors. Some of the cheapest options for reducing emissions involve electricity savings in buildings, fuel savings in vehicles and increased soil carbon content in agriculture. Policies to promote a shift to less carbon-intensive energy sources are particularly effective. Governments can promote a range of energy options, including the encouragement of natural gas as well as mature renewable energy technologies such as large hydro, biomass combustion and geothermal. Carbon capture and storage technology is another option to isolate carbon emissions from the atmosphere, and to store them, for example in geological formation;
• Approximately 30 per cent of the projected emissions in the residential and commercial sectors – the highest rate amongst all sectors studied by the IPCC – could be reduced by 2030 with a net economic benefit. Improvements relating to transport, such as providing public transport systems and their related infrastructure and promoting non-motorised transport can further reduce emissions. The greatest potential for reducing industrial emissions is located in the energy-intensive steel, cement, and pulp and paper industries. Options for reducing agricultural emissions are cost competitive in achieving long-term climate objectives;
• Current rates of deforestation contribute to more than 20% of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, making deforestation across the globe a significant contributor to human-induced climate change. The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation estimates that between 2000 and 2005, an average of 12.9 million hectares of forests was lost annually, mostly in South America, followed by Africa and Asia. Arresting today’s high levels of deforestation, promoting sustainable forest management and planting or promoting new forests could considerably reduce greenhouse gas emissions;
• Climate policies can also bring many win-win benefits that may not factor into cost estimates – positive externalities. These include technological innovation, tax reforms, increased employment, improved energy security and health benefits from reduced pollution. Climate policies offering significant co-benefits have the potential to reduce greenhouse gases and provide substantial advantages for numerous economic sectors and for varying development goals;
• Mainstreaming climate change mitigation is an integral part of sustainable development. The IPCCs findings confirm that sustainable development can reduce greenhouse gas emissions and reduce vulnerability to climate change. Increasingly, strategies to address climate change are being integrated into national planning and sustainable development strategies. Many countries have already launched major national strategies on climate change with a range of government policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from industry, agriculture, and forestry, as well as ambitious energy efficiency and renewable energy goals; and
• Projected climate changes can exacerbate poverty and undermine sustainable development, especially in least-developed countries. Global mitigation efforts can enhance sustainable development prospects in part by reducing the risk of adverse impacts of climate change. Effective multilateral cooperation significantly reduces the global cost of addressing climate change compared to the costs if each country was to act alone. The emerging carbon market resulting from the Kyoto Protocol is an illustration of how market incentives can be used to meet objectives set by an international agreement.

The Role of Business in Shaping Solutions:

• The role of business as a source of solutions on global climate change is now universally recognized, and its interaction with the public policy agenda is increasing. The business community can offer new choices, innovate, apply knowledge and technology to problems and turn them into opportunities. Key to establishing such a role has been the growing number of corporations who have understood the vital importance of corporate social responsibility, risk mitigation, and performance dimensions associated with the sustainable production and use of energy. Actions to address climate change can also provide a platform for new economic growth, new jobs, new manufacturing and service industries, and new roles for sectors such as agriculture and forestry;
• Many of the world’s leading businesses are stepping up to the problem of climate change because they understand its risks and recognize the need to act to minimize those risks. They also see enormous opportunities in the development of new, climate-friendly technologies that will help economies advance and grow — without continuing to pose a threat to the global climate. They also want to improve their competitive position in the marketplace and to get a head start developing the technologies and the strategies that will contribute to reducing emissions in the years ahead;
• There is a wide range of activities that businesses can undertake to reduce their contribution to climate change. They can implement green power programs and cogeneration projects; they can develop energy-saving processes and products, clean fuels, biomass energy, clean-burning vehicle engines and much more. With assistance from governments, they can play an important role in the climate effort through partnerships. Both research partnerships and partnerships in the development of climate policy, can help ensure a factual basis about what can be achieved, how to achieve it and when; and
• At the international and national levels, governments need to provide business with certainty of direction. The challenge is to continue to create the frameworks and partnerships that will allow business to play its essential role in protecting the climate. They need to know that climate change is a priority, to understand the direction and the ultimate goal of national and international climate policies. This will allow businesses to invest with confidence in the necessary technologies and strategies.

8. The G8 Summit:
The G8 summit 2009 took place in L’AQUILA, Italy in July 2009.
Leaders of the world’s eight foremost industrialized economies at the G8 summit in L’AQUILA, Italy, have established an aggressive new marker in the battle against climate change: holding the global temperature to a two-degree-Celsius increase.
To get there, the leaders agreed that the world’s 32 industrialized nations should slash their greenhouse-gas emissions 80 per cent by 2050, though they did not agree on the base year from which the cuts would be made.

Here are the details which were included in the G8 President’s report:
Climate Change and Environment – Fighting Climate Change:

• This is a crucial year for taking rapid and effective global action to combat climate change. We welcome the decision taken within the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Poznan to enter full negotiating mode, in order to shape a global and comprehensive post-2012 agreement by the end of 2009 in Copenhagen, as mandated by the Bali Conference in 2007. We must seize this decisive opportunity to achieve a truly ambitious global consensus;
• We reconfirm our strong commitment to the UNFCCC negotiations and to the successful conclusion of a global, wide-ranging and ambitious post-2012 agreement in Copenhagen, involving all countries, consistent with the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. In this context we also welcome the constructive contribution of the Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate to support a successful outcome in Copenhagen. We call upon all Parties to the UNFCCC and to its Kyoto Protocol to ensure that the negotiations under both the Convention and the Protocol result in a coherent and environmentally effective global agreement;
• We reaffirm the importance of the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and notably of its Fourth Assessment Report, which constitutes the most comprehensive assessment of the science. We recognize the broad scientific view that the increase in global average temperature above pre-industrial levels ought not to exceed 2°C. Because this global challenge can only be met by a global response, we reiterate our willingness to share with all countries the goal of achieving at least a 50% reduction of global emissions by 2050, recognizing that this implies that global emissions need to peak as soon as possible and decline thereafter. As part of this, we also support a goal of developed countries reducing emissions of greenhouse gases in aggregate by 80% or more by 2050 compared to 1990 or more recent years. Consistent with this ambitious long-term objective, we will undertake robust aggregate and individual mid-term reductions, taking into account that baselines may vary and that efforts need to be comparable. Similarly, major emerging economies need to undertake quantifiable actions to collectively reduce emissions significantly below business-as-usual by a specified year; and
• We recognize that the accelerated phase-out of HCFCs mandated under the Montreal Protocol is leading to a rapid increase in the use of HFCs, many of which are very potent GHGs. Therefore we will work with our partners to ensure that HFC emissions reductions are achieved under the appropriate framework. We are also committed to taking rapid action to address other significant climate forcing agents, such as black carbon. These efforts, however, must not draw away attention from ambitious and urgent cuts in emissions from other, more long-lasting, greenhouse gases, which should remain the priority.

Promoting the role of markets to reduce emissions:

• We believe that efficient markets, including carbon markets, supported by stable and predictable regulatory frameworks, are central to achieving these objectives. A wide range of competitive instruments and mechanisms, such as emissions trading schemes and performance-based regulation, constitute some of the most flexible and cost-effective means to foster economically sound investments in energy efficiency, renewable energy, clean and innovative technologies. Other measures, including, where appropriate, incentives, fees, emission and other taxes, progressive reduction of fossil fuel subsidies, consumer labeling, innovative financing mechanisms and public-private partnerships, designed and applied consistently with our international obligations, can also be useful in the context of policies that promote green and sustainable development models and accelerate the transition towards a low carbon society;
• The elimination or reduction of tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade in environmental goods and services is essential to promote the dissemination of cleaner low-carbon energy technologies and associated services worldwide. Efforts should be intensified to ensure a successful outcome of the ongoing WTO negotiations on the liberalization of environmental goods and services. Carbon leakage is an important issue to tackle. It must be addressed in a WTO compatible way. We support the aim of a comprehensive global agreement at Copenhagen, which we believe to be the most appropriate way to deal with any carbon leakage issues that may arise;
• We support flexible, economically sound market-based approaches to emission reductions. In particular, cap & trade schemes, where implemented, have proved largely successful and improved understanding of the potential advantages, critical issues and indicators. The use of market mechanisms, including those under the Kyoto Protocol, provides opportunities to reduce emissions cost-effectively, while facilitating technology diffusion, low-carbon development and the involvement of emerging and developing countries. With a view to building on these experiences and to facilitate action under the global post 2012 agreement, we commit to:

a) Further explore, taking into account national circumstances, the potential of carbon trading systems and their possible linkages;
b) Cooperate among us and with other countries to expand carbon markets to the extent possible and reduce costs and align emission allowance trading schemes, with a view to developing transparent carbon markets which would expand to involve emerging and developing countries, including on a sectoral basis;
c) Support the development, reform and enhancement of project, programmatic and policy-based offset mechanisms, including the Kyoto Protocol’s Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), in order to encourage their use, enhance their effectiveness and environmental integrity, and facilitate actions from developing countries under the global, post-2012 agreement; and
d) Work with others to further develop market mechanisms under the Copenhagen agreement to possibly include sectoral trading and sectoral crediting mechanisms, to enhance the participation of emerging economies and developing countries in the market ensuring environmental integrity.

• The private sector will continue to be an essential player in the efforts to address climate change. To trigger a change in direction and mobilise investments we will engage the private sector more actively, in order to bring its expertise into the international framework and enhance information exchange and partnerships between Governments and businesses;
• Sectoral approaches can be useful tools to facilitate progressive involvement by emerging economies and reinforce economy-wide mitigation policies of developed countries. Analysis has highlighted the potential to curtail emissions by focusing on specific sectors and we welcome the ongoing work of the International Energy Agency (IEA) and others in this respect;
• Attention should also be devoted to sectors, such as international aviation and maritime transport that represent a significant and growing source of emissions and are characterized by a predominantly international dimension. We will use our participation in ICAO, IMO and UNFCCC processes to reach an agreed outcome for the post-2012 period to rapidly advance towards accelerated emission reductions for the international aviation and maritime sectors.

The G8 agreement will put added pressure on the Harper government to revise its climate-change plan to force deeper emission cuts than it currently proposes, John Drexhage, an Ottawa-based analyst with the International Institute for Sustainable Development, said Wednesday.
“You can always finesse things in terms of what your allocation will be,” Mr. Drexhage said. “But by and large, the two-degree mark would call for reductions of a greater stringency than the current Conservative plan.”

The Group of Eight nations still have a substantial sales job on their hands as they try to persuade emerging economies like China and India to take a large share of the load. Representatives of those nations laid down their own line in the sand, saying they won’t allow greenhouse gases to be cut on the backs of their poor..

Less than 24 hours after Prime Minister Stephen Harper praised the G8 for its latest climate-change targets, his environment minister said those targets are “aspirational” and that Canada will not meet them. Jim Prentice said reducing emissions by 80 per cent by the year 2050 is an “aspirational objective.”

The best-case scenario for the Harper government’s climate-change program - which does not yet have enforceable regulations in place - is a reduction in Canada’s greenhouse-gas emissions of up to 70 per cent by 2050. Prentice said Canada does not need to change its policy.

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon is criticizing Group of Eight nations for not going far enough in setting targets to fight climate change, a move that creates a bad example for developing nations.

Dr. Mir F. Ali, Sustainability Analyst, with Turner Lane Development Corporation, a real estate development company with the commitment to build sustainable communities in British Columbia, Canada.